The Anatolian Option in Rare Earth Elements

In the corridors of Ankara and Washington, quiet yet intense discussions are underway about a mining site located in the calm steppes of Central Anatolia. The subject is a rare earth element (REE) reserve discovered in Beylikova, near Eskişehir—one of the largest in the world. These talks signify far more than a simple commercial agreement: they point to a potential geopolitical shift in the "new great game" over the resources that form the foundation of 21st-century technological and military power. The reason for this commotion is a group of 17 metallic elements, also known as the "vitamins of technology." The essentials of the modern economy—from smartphone screens to the guidance systems of F-35 fighter jets, from electric vehicle motors to wind turbines—depend on the presence of trace amounts of these elements. The International Energy Agency projects that as the green transition accelerates, the demand for these minerals could increase sevenfold by 2040.

For decades, the West was content to outsource the laborious and polluting production process of these elements to China. This strategy provided cheap electronic devices but also created a perilous strategic dependency. Today, Beijing is not only the largest miner (accounting for approximately 58% of global production) but also the master of nearly the entire refining and separation process, controlling over 85% of the world's refining capacity.

In the past, China has not hesitated to use this dominance as a geopolitical weapon, as seen in a dispute with Japan in 2010. Now, a sense of urgency prevails in the West. The shock caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in the energy markets has triggered fears of a similar crisis in critical raw materials. The United States is attempting to establish non-Chinese supply chains by forming a Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) that includes allies like Australia and Japan.

For its part, the European Union has adopted an ambitious Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which aims to process 40% of its strategic raw materials within its own borders by 2030. However, to achieve these goals, they desperately need new, reliable sources.

This is where Türkiye enters the stage. The 694-million-ton ore reserve discovered in Eskişehir-Beylikova in 2022 is considered the world's second-largest, after China's Bayan Obo deposit. This discovery offers Türkiye the potential to become a key player in the global supply chain.

Ankara's recent moves are quite revealing. Turkish officials had been in talks with both China and Russia for some time to process this massive resource. However, it appears these negotiations were unsuccessful. Now, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's government has pivoted to the West. Discussions between Ankara and Washington indicate that Türkiye prefers to form a partnership with its NATO allies to develop this strategic asset. Türkiye's participation in the MSP forum is another sign confirming this trend.

The reasons behind this pivot are likely multifaceted. Perhaps the conditions put forward by Beijing for technology transfer and financing were too onerous for Ankara. Or, there were doubts about sanctions-hit Russia's technological and financial capacity to realize a project of this scale. A more plausible scenario is that Türkiye calculated it would be more profitable to negotiate with a West that is desperately seeking alternatives to China and might be more generous in its terms.

However, a significant obstacle lies ahead. Türkiye possesses a vast amount of ore, but it lacks the magic formula to turn it into F-35 components. The real value and difficulty of rare earth elements lie not in mining, but in the extremely complex, costly, and environmentally damaging refining process, which requires separating the 17 chemically similar elements. The secret to China's global monopoly lies precisely in this technological expertise. Therefore, a potential American partnership is vital for Türkiye: while Ankara brings the reserves to the table, Washington can offer technology, capital, and, most importantly, a guarantee of access to the global market. Türkiye's plan to apply for certification under the international JORC Code—which would validate the deposit's size and commercial potential for investors—demonstrates the seriousness of the project and its intention to comply with Western standards.

This potential partnership could be a significant move in the 21st-century resource competition. For the West, it is a critical step toward breaking China's stranglehold; for Türkiye, it is not only a multi-billion-dollar economic opportunity but also a new and powerful strategic lever in its relations with the West. However, success will depend not only on the geology beneath the ground but also on the complex geopolitics above it.

How skillfully Ankara plays this delicate balancing act will determine the future of both Türkiye and the global technology supply chain.